COVID-19 epidemic phases and morbidity in different areas of Chinese mainland, 2020.

Background: In the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese mainland once effectively controlled the epidemic, but COVID-19 eventually spread faster and faster in the world. The purpose of this study is to clarify the differences in the epidemic data of COVID-19 in different areas and phases in Chinese mainland in 2020, and to analyze the possible factors affecting the occurrence and development of the epidemic. Methods: We divided the Chinese mainland into areas I, I and III, and divided the epidemic process into phases I to IV: limited cases, accelerated increase, decelerated increase and containment phases. We also combined phases II and III as outbreak phase. The epidemic data included the duration of different phases, the numbers of confirmed cases, asymptomatic infections, and the proportion of imported cases from abroad. Results: In area I, II and III, only area I has a Phase I, and the Phase II and III of area I are longer. In Phase IV, there is a 17-day case clearing period in area I, while that in area II and III are 2 and 0 days, respectively. In phase III or the whole outbreak phase, the average daily increase of confirmed cases in area I was higher than that in areas II and III (P = 0.009 and P = 0.001 in phase III; P = 0.034 and P = 0.002 in the whole outbreak phase), and the average daily in-hospital cases were most in area I and least in area III (P = 0.000, P = 0.000, and P = 0.000 in phase III; P = 0.000, P = 0.000, and P = 0.009 in the whole outbreak phase). The average number of daily in-hospital COVID-19 cases in phase III was more than that in phase II in each area (P = 0.000, P = 0.000, and P = 0.001). In phase IV, from March 18, 2020 to January 1, 2021, the increase of confirmed cases in area III was higher than areas I and II (both P = 0.000), and the imported cases from abroad in Chinese mainland accounted for more than 55-61%. From June 16 to July 2, 2020, the number of new asymptomatic infections in area III was higher than that in area II (P = 0.000), while there was zero in area I. From July 3, 2020 to January 1, 2021, the increased COVID-19 cases in area III were 3534, while only 14 and 0, respectively, in areas I and II. Conclusions: The worst epidemic areas in Chinese mainland before March 18, 2020 and after June 15, 2020 were area I and area III, respectively, and area III had become the main battlefield for Chinese mainland to fight against imported epidemic since March 18, 2020. In Wuhan, human COVID-19 infection might occur before December 8, 2019, while the outbreak might occur before January 16 or even 10, 2020. Insufficient understanding of COVID-19 hindered the implementation of early effective isolation measures, leading to COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, and strict isolation measures were effective in controlling the epidemic. The import of foreign COVID-19 cases has made it difficult to control the epidemic of area III. When humans are once again faced with potentially infectious new diseases, it is appropriate to first and foremost take strict quarantine measures as soon as possible, and mutual cooperation between regions should be explored to combat the epidemic.

Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model

We use a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model to examine the impacts of different isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts that strong isolation measures in the early stage of the pandemic can not only delay the time for the number of infections and deaths to reach the peak but also greatly reduce the cumulative number of infections and deaths. We verify the model predictions by using the simulation and the data of the COVID-19 cases. The results are independent of the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases.

State and trait anxiety among medical staff during the first month of COVID-19 pandemic: A sample from Turkey.

OBJECTIVES: During the COVID-19 pandemic, excessive workload, a rapidly changing workplace environment, the danger of carrying the virus and transmitting the disease to their families, relatives and those they live with creates stress for the medical workers. In our study, we aimed to evaluate the state and trait anxiety levels of healthcare professionals who encounter patients with suspected COVID-19 infection and related factors. METHOD: Data were collected from healthcare professionals working with patients diagnosed or suspected with COVID-19 via online self-report questionnaire between 9-19 April 2020. The state (STAI-S) and trait anxiety (STAI-T) scale was used to measure anxiety. RESULTS: A total of 291 healthcare professionals, 216 women and 75 men, participated in the study. Women's state and trait anxiety were significantly higher than men's. 11 participants without any lifetime psychiatric illness experienced psychiatric symptoms and consulted to a psychiatrist. The state anxiety of those who have children, nurses and those working in branches directly related to the pandemic (Infectious Diseases, Respiratory Diseases, Emergency Medicine, Internal Medicine, Radiology, Anesthesiology and Reanimation) was higher than others. The state anxiety of those who thought they were not protected with personal protective equipment and those who did not stay in their own home was higher than others. CONCLUSIONS: At the forefront of the fight against COVID-19, there are medical personnel who pay a serious psychological cost. Especially in terms of anxiety, we should pay attention to women, workers with children, nurses and people working in branches that are directly related to pandemics.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic and related isolation measures on violence against children in Egypt.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and related isolation measures have substantial adverse economic, social, and psychological consequences and expose children to increased risk of violence. The present study aimed to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on violence against children in Egypt. METHODS: An online survey, in Arabic, was disseminated during the period from 9 to 13 April 2020, to parents of children who were up to 18 years old residing in Egypt, selected using a snowball sampling technique, during the period from 25 March to 8 April during the implementation of the nationwide compulsory isolation measures against COVID-19 (25 March to 8 April 2020). The survey covered three areas: socio-demographic data, psychological impact measured using the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), and violence against children during the past 2 weeks measured using a modified parent-report of a child abuse screening tool (ICAST-P) developed by the International Society for the Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect. RESULTS: Out of 1118 completed survey responses, 90.5% of children were subjected to violent discipline, 88.7% experienced psychological aggression, and 43.2% encountered severe physical punishment. Approximately 60% of respondents reported a moderate-to-severe psychological impact (IES-R scores ≥ 33), which was associated with a higher rate of violent discipline (OR: 9.3; 95% CI: 5.37-16.027; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study in Egypt to provide evidence on the association of COVID-19 pandemic, its psychological impact, and increased rates of violence against children. Effective multilevel strategies are urgently required to protect children from violence and its catastrophic consequences during the continually evolving COVID-19 pandemic.

The analysis of isolation measures for epidemic control of COVID-19.

This paper proposes a susceptible exposed infectious recovered model (SEIR) with isolation measures to evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic based on the prevention and control policy implemented by the Chinese government on February 23, 2020. According to the Chinese government's immediate isolation and centralized diagnosis of confirmed cases, and the adoption of epidemic tracking measures on patients to prevent further spread of the epidemic, we divide the population into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine, confirmed and recovered. This paper proposes an SEIR model with isolation measures that simultaneously investigates the infectivity of the incubation period, reflects prevention and control measures and calculates the basic reproduction number of the model. According to the data released by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, we estimated the parameters of the model and compared the simulation results of the model with actual data. We have considered the trend of the epidemic under different incubation periods of infectious capacity. When the incubation period is not contagious, the peak number of confirmed in the model is 33,870; and when the infectious capacity is 0.1 times the infectious capacity in the infectious period, the peak number of confirmed in the model is 57,950; when the infectious capacity is doubled, the peak number of confirmed will reach 109,300. Moreover, by changing the contact rate in the model, we found that as the intensity of prevention and control measures increase, the peak of the epidemic will come earlier, and the peak number of confirmed will also be significantly reduced. Under extremely strict prevention and control measures, the peak number of confirmed cases has dropped by nearly 50%. In addition, we use the EEMD method to decompose the time series data of the epidemic, and then combine the LSTM model to predict the trend of the epidemic. Compared with the method of directly using LSTM for prediction, more detailed information can be obtained.